CEA: Growth projection neitherconservative nor overly optimistic
CEA: Growth projection neitherconservative nor overly optimistic
Growth projection made in the Economic Survey 2025-2026 of 6.8-7.2 per cent range for FY27 is neither conservative nor overly optimistic, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said. At this projected rate, India would still retain the fastest growing major economy in the world.
However, the FY27 estimated growth would be lower than the 7.4 per cent pegged for the current financial year as per the First Advance Estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO). Multilateral funding agencies have projected much lower growth for India with 6.4 per cent growth pegged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 6.5 per cent by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the next financial year.
Speaking to PTI, Nageswaran said whether some number is conservative or optimistic also depends on the global context in which we are able to anticipate these numbers. At the moment, he said, “the practice of conservatism and then adjusting the numbers as the reality unfolds is something that has served us well.
Therefore, we feel right now 6.8 to 7.2 per cent range is neither conservative nor overly optimistic.” Talking about headwind for the growth, Nageswaran said it is mostly geopolitical, growth in private credit, and also financial market risks would have an impact.
On the depreciating rupee, he said, it has already become attractive because it is not in line with fundamentals. “Fundamentals are very strong, and the rupee has been depreciating because of capital flow concerns...if the trade uncertainty resolves itself with the United States, then capital flows will definitely become stronger and will improve,” he said.
Asked for any timeline by which the situation would reverse, he said it is not particularly possible to be very precise in these matters. The Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in Parliament on Thursday said the value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India’s stellar economic fundamentals.
